Has the air-cooled 911 finally hit its ceiling?

Five years of relentless appreciation appear to be flattening. We read the last 600 sold results to find out whether the smart money is still buying.

For the better part of a decade, the air-cooled Porsche 911 has been the bluest of blue-chip collector cars. A 1973 Carrera RS that changed hands for £250,000 in 2015 was worth comfortably north of £700,000 five years later. The 964 and 993 generations, once the unloved middle children of the range, followed the same trajectory with a lag of about eighteen months.

But the last four auction cycles tell a more complicated story. Median sold prices across the air-cooled range are up just 1.4% over the trailing twelve months — the slowest rate of appreciation since we began tracking the segment. Strip out the very top of the market, the RS and RSR cars that trade on provenance rather than condition, and the median is actually flat.

So has the ceiling arrived? Not quite. What the data shows is not a market in decline but a market that has finally become discriminating. The blanket appreciation of 2018–2022, where a running 964 of almost any specification went up simply for existing, is over. In its place is a market that pays handsomely for the right car and shrugs at the wrong one.

The clearest evidence is in the spread. Two years ago, the gap between the cheapest and most expensive third of 993 sold results was around 35%. Today it is 61%. Originality, documented history and the correct colour combination now command premiums that did not exist when the tide was lifting all boats.

For the buyer with patience and a good eye, this is arguably a healthier market than the frenzy that preceded it. The cars that matter are still appreciating. The cars that were only ever riding the wave are correcting. Our verdict on the segment remains accumulate — but for the first time in years, the word that matters is selectively.

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